“It would be a big mistake for Moscow to now agree to Bulgaria’s demands that Russia resume gas supplies under the previous conditions, after seventy diplomats were expelled from Sofia,” wrote the MGIMO professor, diplomat and former deputy foreign minister of Russia Sergey Krylov in an article entitled “The New Order”, published by the magazine “Russia in Global Politics” and quoted by dir.bg.
“There can be no question of the past (alleged) friendship. This friendship has already been betrayed by them many times”, emphasizes the author.
According to Krylov, today the EU and NATO are united by only one thing – their hatred for everything related to Russia and their desire to humiliate and destroy it. Against this background, it is naive to assume that Russia will restore its relations with Europe to the same extent and under the same conditions as before.
“Today’s European leaders – writes the author – following the American presidents (I use the plural, because Biden is not the first in the series) and various congressmen and senators, on every occasion, and often without one, repeat the mantra that Ukraine should be helped by any means so that Russia is crushed and democracy triumphs over authoritarianism. However, most of them (Baltics not included) still refrain from calling for a change in Russia’s system of government and its leader. Moreover, they they don’t hesitate to say that the sanctions should not make life difficult for ordinary people”, Krylov believes and states that they (the leaders) do not know what they are doing.
“But they are convinced of their infallibility and in no case think about the consequences of their statements and especially actions. This is not surprising, because most of them are ignorant, who have not gone through the school of practical actions and do not know what means responsibility. Their whole lives have been spent within narrow and highly ideological party factions, and they are sure it will continue to be so.”
In Russia, analogies to this can easily be found in history, writes Krylov. “In the Soviet Union, those who felt insecure in their profession often tried to establish themselves and rise in the party or trade union structures. Later, those who succeeded commanded the specialists and professionals in their respective fields, which sometimes led to stagnation of entire industries and eventually became the cause of stagnation of the whole country.
At the same time, those politicians who were more intelligent tried to base their statements, and even more so their decisions, on the opinion of professionals, on the developments of the structures now called Think Tanks. These structures were in a number of authoritative bodies, first of all in some departments of the apparatus of the Central Committee of the CPSU, scientific organizations and ministries. And since the structure of the state apparatus in different countries is approximately the same, I can hardly imagine that they do not exist in today’s United States or in the large European countries. It would be very interesting to understand how these structures imagine life in their countries and in Europe as a whole after the victory. The victory that is absolutely unreal, but exists in their heads and that Western politicians trumpet loudly. And I’m sure such scenarios are being developed. And these scenarios are probably more or less realistic. I’m also sure that the main points of these scenarios are reported at the highest level, where they seem to be ignored,” Krylov thinks, and ponders what would happen if Russia loses the war.
“Suppose that a second miracle of the Vistula (Battle of Warsaw in 1920), which is the dream of Warsaw and Kyiv, had taken place. The Russian troops had withdrawn to the line they were on before the special military operation… As A (supposedly) defeated country, Russia could face many and varied demands. Simply assuming that losers are not celebrated. The approach would be the same as the treatment of Russia after the collapse of the USSR and the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s. those years of the 20th century, when in the eyes of the West Russia was practically defeated, and therefore everything could be demanded of it… In the unlikely event that Russia loses, they will demand everything from us in the same scenario – the restoration of Ukraine, continuous supplies of everything the West needs, complete obedience and compliance with the rules it considers to be the only true ones.At the same time, Russia, according to their calculations, will be deprived of access to technology, credit, equipment and so called In other words, any restrictions imposed by the sanctions will remain in place.
This is approximately what was demanded by the losing countries – Russia and Germany – at Brest in 1918. And Russia agrees to partially comply with them. But today it is unthinkable to even imagine such a situation. The situation will look completely different.
Yes, Russia will face great difficulties as a result of the sanctions imposed. It is possible that in some sectors we will return to the level of the 1990s. But there will be no shortage of energy, food, metals and many other important goods for the country. The quality may go down somewhat, but there won’t be a complete deficit. On the contrary, Europeans will look at us with envy and ask their politicians why they destroyed what their predecessors had built for decades. The development of events shows that ordinary European (and American) citizens already have similar doubts about the correctness of the actions of the political elites in their countries”, writes Krylov and adds that the world energy system is completely unbalanced by the efforts of the Americans and their European greens followers. And unaffordable electricity and heat prices are only a small part of the future reality. “Much more serious consequences threaten the industry. The production of chemical, metallurgical, food and many other products in Europe, especially in energy-intensive industries, has already started to decline. And it is unlikely that this process will be stopped. In the next two to three years, Europe will not have other sources of energy resources comparable to Russian ones. So the winners will be the US and, most likely, India and China.
Europe and the Western world in general are not at all what they were in the 1990s, when the new Russia sought to be part of them and made many concessions to achieve this. And this process of transformation of Western civilization, more reminiscent of decline, will obviously continue, and with acceleration,” predicts the Russian diplomat.
“After Poland, and later the Baltic states and other Eastern Europeans, were admitted to the EU, it ceased to be the economic union that was most useful for the development of the member states, as its founders envisioned it in the early 1950s. last century. But from the mid-1990s onwards, political considerations began to override everything else and economic considerations took a back seat. The reluctance of these recruits to follow the old European order and their economic weakness were overlooked. They were so eager to prove their loyalty, so ready to reject and forget everything related to the USSR”, believes Krylov and accuses the “recruits” of ingratitude for what the Soviet Union has done for them “often to the detriment of themselves”.
“And with this ideological baggage, they became full members of the EU and NATO, bringing with them not only their claims and grievances, including against many “old” EU members (Germany is a very clear example), but also the readiness to capture the mood of the patrons and to comply with their political will.
As a result, the conditional Estonia today determines the policy of Brussels… Brussels is no longer what it used to be. The ideas of mutual aid and solidarity are forgotten… For example, during the 2020 pandemic, constant promises of unity did not lead to an increase in the production of vaccines in countries. Everyone survived alone. The previously imagined unity was torn apart by the migration crisis… Today Poland, for example, openly states that it does not intend to share its gas with those who do not have it, despite the official EU commitment made after the Ukrainian gas crisis of the mid-2000s ., to support its neighbors in the framework of European energy solidarity, if necessary…
…It should not be forgotten that the current prosperity of the West is largely the result of cheap raw materials and energy obtained from Russia and the inflated prices it paid for equipment and technology. Such colonial practices must be stopped, whatever the cost. In the West, for example in Germany, which has gained more than anyone else from cooperation with us, they still think that Russia should be treated as a secondary country and that they do not need to take into account its interests. Not in vain, faced with the prospect of a gas shortage, they began to talk about the possibility of using Nord Stream 2, but only to fill their tanks, and then the pipeline would be closed again,” writes Krylov and declares the approach cynical .
According to him, previous achievements and agreements in the field of European security can be forgotten.
“Another argument is that even the prerequisites for creating new possibilities for the deployment of NATO troops near our borders should be excluded. And if for this it is necessary to take control of the Black Sea coast, this should be done. – well, of course, through negotiations, after the end of the military operation. But another possibility cannot be ruled out.”
“It is quite clear that both Russia and Europe will suffer great losses from today’s clash. The ties established over decades – in the economy, trade, science – have been destroyed. Not to mention the humanitarian sphere… Russia, which always felt more European than Asian in her culture and traditions, and who wanted to be in Europe, finally realized that not only was she not welcome there, but that she was looked upon with fear, hatred and contempt “, Krylov writes and concludes that it is time for Russia’s foreign policy to pay more attention to Eastern, African and Latin American countries, as well as to review the scale of its presence in Western countries.