We’re reposting the week’s most-read comments and analysis. This is comment #2 with 117,636 reads
The signs of Putin’s inevitable end are becoming more frequent every day. These types of regimes are based on fictional ideologies that live up to their direct collision with reality. Thus, the unexpected Ukrainian counter-offensive on such a scale brought a huge upheaval to the propaganda machine, and thus cracked the inflated image of the dictator as an invincible leader.
Autocracies always build their belief in their success around the personality of the leader, the Duce, the Führer. Internally, the repressive apparatus does its job to keep this faith intact, or at least to cover up the doubts – selected people in the media, selected reports, dispersal of the demonstrations. Arsenal, which we noticed until recently also in Bulgaria from an Atlantic chief.
But when faced with the reality invading from abroad – either Magnitsky or Ukraine: the belief in the power of the leader and his regime begins to crack. And the events against the leader began to flood the entire country like an avalanche that could not be controlled. Mass desertion at the front, declarations of municipal councilors from all over the country, organization of private armies of oligarchs, even Kremlin offers to Kyiv for peace begin to circulate.
That’s what happened in 1917 in Russia, then 1989 in all of Eastern Europe, and it still smells like that now.
In March, I made the erroneous prediction that Russia does not have the economy for a long war, and a rational solution would be, failing a blitzkrieg, to seek a quick freeze on the conflict. But I didn’t realize then that the Kremlin’s decisions – as befits these regimes – are entirely ideological and therefore disconnected from reality.
So it will happen now – Russia will collapse not because the refrigerator can be heard better than the TV – no, the Russians would surely endure any famine if they felt that their leader was leading them to greatness. No, Russia will collapse because the ideology of its greatness is on falling feet of clay. And when the Russians lose their faith, the leader’s days are numbered.
So – one wonders what our Putinophiles rely on, having invaded our politics and publicity like social herbariums?
The myths about the decaying West, about the withering power of the USA, about the ruler from the Kremlin, who, like a wall, will stop the “decaying” Western influence? The genders, the chemtrels, the libertarians, the sorosoids?
Perhaps the rise of China and a decade of hybrid Russian propaganda have erased any element of reason and the same concrete heads and their pre-1989 successors have reared their heads – like an old war horse blowing the war horn. Or more aptly: Aurora’s volleys.
Didn’t both China and Russia get rich again through Western technology and trade, especially the USA? What madness is it to forget this dependence and seek to rearrange the world order with some mythical multipolarity?
How can you be in the UN Security Council, founded with the Charter of the right of states to self-determination and have claims for a new order?
And countries like Japan and Germany don’t have it?
The difference again rests on the social structures: whether the Law rules or one person.
Because democracies – with all their weaknesses – cannot push the whole society into some crazy ideology of greatness, even though Trump tried.
Because after all, the Law rules in the name of each person, not in the name of the state of one person.