It is becoming increasingly difficult for the Ukrainian army to retake territory from Russian forces, which are strengthening and learning from their mistakes, avoiding risky offensives.
According to US officials, the Ukrainian military – with significant US support – has secured the upper hand against the Russians, repulsed the attack and retaken the only regional capital the Russians had captured.
However, the tide of the war is expected to change as the Russian army strengthens and moves reinforcements to the front line. These factors reinforce the scenario of a stalemate in the second year of the war. This is what the “New York Times” wrote in its comment, quoted by dnes.bg.
“It’s much easier for Ukraine to defend the territory it holds and avoid an offensive strategy. We need to provide the Ukrainians with the equipment and training to do that,” notes Evelyn Farkas, a former Pentagon official and Russia expert.
Although Ukraine’s military has consistently proven more effective than Russia’s, Ukrainian officials have warned of the risk of a major Russian offensive. However, Western analysts insist that Russia does not currently have the necessary troops for such an operation.
Ukrainian forces are focusing more on the interior of the Kherson region, with US officials saying Kyiv will not invade Crimea, opting instead for sabotage operations like the one on the Kerch bridge. The Ukrainians believe that if they reduce the pressure on the southern front, the Russian army will take advantage of the opportunity to transfer forces to other, less defended fronts.
Ukraine remains dependent on US intelligence, which pinpoints the Russian military’s weakest points. The Ukrainian counter-offensive near Kharkiv in September succeeded because the Ukrainians faced unprepared Russian forces.
A new strategy
However, US officials believe that the Kremlin is learning from its mistakes on the battlefield. Putin has appointed a new commander of Russian forces, General Sergei Surovikin, who is running complex operations more effectively than his predecessors. In recent weeks, Ukrainian officials have acknowledged that airstrikes against their supply lines have intensified, leading to an increase in casualties among the Ukrainian military.
The Russian army is currently digging trenches and building fortifications at strategic points. The retreat from Kherson offers a good example of the lessons learned by the Russian army. Although Putin initially rejected any prospect of a retreat, General Surovikin persisted until he broke the president’s resistance. The retreat allowed Russian forces to use the Dnieper River as a natural fortification project. The operation was conducted with a professionalism that the Russian army had not yet demonstrated during the war.
“He is fortifying positions and building a network of trenches, as well as protected positions and road checkpoints,” explains Dara Masikov, an analyst at the RAND Institute.
From October Surovikin implemented a defensive strategy and managed to restore discipline in the ranks of the army.
.
