Analytics site FiveThirtyEight has calculated the probability of winning the Champions League for all the teams that have reached the group stage of the tournament.
Calculations are based on each team’s rating, as well as defensive and offensive ratings, using a special formula.
A situation is simulated where a team plays against an abstract average team on a neutral ground and based on this model the number of expected goals scored and conceded are determined.
The calculations show that the main favorite in the tournament is Bayern, who have a 21% chance of winning the Champions League this year.
“This is the main favorite among all the participants, despite the fact that Bayern entered a difficult group with Barcelona and Inter,” the website notes.
In second place is Manchester City, who are given 18 percent chances, and third is PSG with 14 percent. Fourth is Liverpool, and only in fifth place is the current European champion Real Madrid, with about a 7 percent chance of winning the trophy.
Barcelona, Chelsea and Ajax’s chances of winning the Champions League are equally rated at just 2 percent, while Juventus are given the same chances of winning the Champions League as Viktoria Pilsen, Maccabi or Dinamo Zagreb.